Linked outcomes

Event

MAS introduces Total Debt Servicing Ratio framework for property loans

Announced 28 June 2013 · Effective 29 June 2013 · Macroprudential

Comparison anchored to effective date: 29 June 2013.

Before and after figures are the 90-day windows of the before and after view, not each outcome record's own window. A link here is an association the archive records; it is not a finding that the event produced the outcome.

In brief

5 outcome records are linked to this event: 0 with computable series, 4 citing a series whose aggregation type is unresolved, 0 observed without a series, and 1 unresolved.
Immediate transaction-activity decline cites URA private residential property price index, QoQ change; the aggregation type is unresolved, so Prevo does not compute a before and after comparison.
Every outcome record names its source in text; none has a source document attached.
3 further series are observed around this event through its category mapping, not through an outcome record.

Linked outcomes (5)

Directly referenced: an outcome record on this event. Listed computable first, then not computable, then observed in words, then unresolved; not ranked.

Outcome record 1

Immediate transaction-activity decline

Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved. (DQ-OUT-002)

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Calculated from published series
Outcome window: Q3 2013 · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Begins on or after the event. Window "Q3 2013" read as 1 July 2013 to 30 September 2013, against the effective date 29 June 2013. No dated window is stored; the dates are read from the label.

URA private residential property price index, QoQ change

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

Source named: URA quarterly private residential statisticsPrimary source cited for URA private residential property price index, QoQ change: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityDerived observationEvidence incomplete

Gap: The source is named in text; no source document is attached to the outcome record.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
MAS introduces Total Debt Servicing Ratio framework for property loans
Announced 28 June 2013, effective 29 June 2013
Outcome record
Outcome record 1: Immediate transaction-activity decline
Calendar window "Q3 2013", anchored to the effective date
Metric
URA private residential property price index, QoQ change
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

As recorded on the outcome

Developer transaction activity weakened materially relative to the high sales rates seen before TDSR. URA PPI rose +0.4% QoQ versus approximately +1.0% in Q2 2013: price growth stalled rapidly; prices did not decline in Q3.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2013_tdsr_jun · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000010001 · metrics 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001

Outcome record 2

Initial private price inflection

Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved. (DQ-OUT-002)

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Calculated from published series
Outcome window: Q4 2013 - Q1 2014 · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Begins on or after the event. Window "Q4 2013 - Q1 2014" read as 1 October 2013 to 31 March 2014, against the effective date 29 June 2013. No dated window is stored; the dates are read from the label.

URA private residential property price index, QoQ change

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

Gap: The source is named in text; no source document is attached to the outcome record.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
MAS introduces Total Debt Servicing Ratio framework for property loans
Announced 28 June 2013, effective 29 June 2013
Outcome record
Outcome record 2: Initial private price inflection
Calendar window "Q4 2013 - Q1 2014", anchored to the effective date
Metric
URA private residential property price index, QoQ change
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

As recorded on the outcome

URA PPI approximately -0.9% QoQ in Q4 2013, the beginning of the sustained decline in the overall index, followed by approximately -1.3% QoQ in Q1 2014. Full sequence around the event: Q2 2013 +1.0%, Q3 +0.4%, Q4 -0.9%, Q1 2014 -1.3%.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2013_tdsr_jun · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000010002 · metrics 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001

Outcome record 3

Calendar 2014 price and sales declines

Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved. (DQ-OUT-002)

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Calculated from published series
Outcome window: calendar 2014 · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Begins on or after the event. Window "calendar 2014" read as 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2014, against the effective date 29 June 2013. No dated window is stored; the dates are read from the label.

URA private residential property price index, QoQ change

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

URA private residential property price index, calendar-year change

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

New private residential units sold by developers, excluding ECs (HEADLINE: uncompleted plus completed)

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

Source named: URA quarterly private residential statistics. Companion launch figures for 2014 are not stated in the audit document, so companion_metric_present is false and this outcome carries the denominator-rule review flag.Primary source cited for URA private residential property price index, QoQ change: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityPrimary source cited for URA private residential property price index, calendar-year change: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityPrimary source cited for New private residential units sold by developers, excluding ECs (HEADLINE: uncompleted plus completed): Urban Redevelopment AuthorityDerived observationEvidence incomplete

Gap: The source is named in text; no source document is attached to the outcome record.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
MAS introduces Total Debt Servicing Ratio framework for property loans
Announced 28 June 2013, effective 29 June 2013
Outcome record
Outcome record 3: Calendar 2014 price and sales declines
Calendar window "calendar 2014", anchored to the effective date
Metric
URA private residential property price index, QoQ change
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source
Metric
URA private residential property price index, calendar-year change
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source
Metric
New private residential units sold by developers, excluding ECs (HEADLINE: uncompleted plus completed)
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

As recorded on the outcome

URA PPI approximately -4.0% for the year. Developer private residential sales excluding ECs: 2012 22,197 units; 2013 14,948; 2014 7,316. 2014 developer sales were approximately 51% below 2013 and approximately 67% below 2012.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2013_tdsr_jun · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000010003 · metrics 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001, 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000002, 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000004

Outcome record 4

Fifteen-quarter sustained price decline

Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved. (DQ-OUT-002)

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Calculated from published series
Outcome window: Q4 2013 - Q2 2017 · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Begins on or after the event. Window "Q4 2013 - Q2 2017" read as 1 October 2013 to 30 June 2017, against the effective date 29 June 2013. No dated window is stored; the dates are read from the label.

URA private residential property price index, QoQ change

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

Gap: The source is named in text; no source document is attached to the outcome record.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
MAS introduces Total Debt Servicing Ratio framework for property loans
Announced 28 June 2013, effective 29 June 2013
Outcome record
Outcome record 4: Fifteen-quarter sustained price decline
Calendar window "Q4 2013 - Q2 2017", anchored to the effective date
Metric
URA private residential property price index, QoQ change
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

As recorded on the outcome

Private residential prices declined for 15 consecutive quarters, Q4 2013 through Q2 2017, returning to quarterly growth in Q3 2017. Cumulative decline approximately 11%-12%, depending on exact comparison points.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2013_tdsr_jun · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000010004 · metrics 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001

Outcome record 5

HDB resale downturn, multiple policy exposures

Unresolved

The outcome is recorded as calculated but cites no metric, so the calculation cannot be traced or re-run (DQ-OUT-003).

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Calculated from published series
Outcome window: H2 2013 onward · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Window recorded as "H2 2013 onward" (calendar), anchored to the effective date 29 June 2013. No dated window is stored and the label gives no dates, so it is not placed.

Source named: HDB Resale Price Index and resale transaction statisticsDerived observationEvidence incomplete

Gap: The source is named in text; no source document is attached to the outcome record.
Gap: Recorded as calculated, but the calculation cites no series.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
MAS introduces Total Debt Servicing Ratio framework for property loans
Announced 28 June 2013, effective 29 June 2013
Outcome record
Outcome record 5: HDB resale downturn, multiple policy exposures
Calendar window "H2 2013 onward", anchored to the effective date
Source
HDB Resale Price Index and resale transaction statistics
Named in text on the outcome record; no document attached

As recorded on the outcome

HDB resale prices entered a prolonged downturn beginning around this period.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2013_tdsr_jun · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000010005

Associated indicators (3)

Observed around the selected event: a series mapped to this kind of event, cited by no outcome record.

HDB Resale Price Index

Unresolved

No whole period of this series falls inside the 90-day windows, so nothing is observed at this window length.

Temporal relationship: No whole period of the series falls inside the 90-day windows either side of 29 June 2013.

HDB Resale Price Index

INDEX · Computable

90 days before

None

0/90 days

90 days after

None

0/90 days

Observed change

Not stated

No whole quarterly period of this series falls inside either window, so no comparison is stated. A longer window may contain one.

Primary source cited: Housing & Development Board

Why is this linked?

Policy event
MAS introduces Total Debt Servicing Ratio framework for property loans
Announced 28 June 2013, effective 29 June 2013
Category mapping
Series mapped to macroprudential events
No outcome record cites it
Metric
HDB Resale Price Index
Series type: INDEX
Observed series
Observed series, value in the latest whole quarterly period inside each 90-day window
Before: no whole period. After: no whole period.
Source
Housing & Development Board
Primary source

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2013_tdsr_jun · metrics bd89e9e1-83d4-4cb1-a341-40896143b8d8

Private Residential Property Price Index, All Residential

Unresolved

No whole period of this series falls inside the 90-day windows, so nothing is observed at this window length.

Temporal relationship: No whole period of the series falls inside the 90-day windows either side of 29 June 2013.

Private Residential Property Price Index, All Residential

INDEX · Computable

90 days before

None

0/90 days

90 days after

None

0/90 days

Observed change

Not stated

No whole quarterly period of this series falls inside either window, so no comparison is stated. A longer window may contain one.

Primary source cited: Urban Redevelopment Authority

Why is this linked?

Policy event
MAS introduces Total Debt Servicing Ratio framework for property loans
Announced 28 June 2013, effective 29 June 2013
Category mapping
Series mapped to macroprudential events
No outcome record cites it
Metric
Private Residential Property Price Index, All Residential
Series type: INDEX
Observed series
Observed series, value in the latest whole quarterly period inside each 90-day window
Before: no whole period. After: no whole period.
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2013_tdsr_jun · metrics 7cbef7bc-b216-48c3-851c-91b71553b792

Singapore private residential transactions, all types of sale

Unresolved

No whole period of this series falls inside the 90-day windows, so nothing is observed at this window length.

Temporal relationship: No whole period of the series falls inside the 90-day windows either side of 29 June 2013.

Singapore private residential transactions, all types of sale

FLOW · Computable

90 days before

None

0/90 days

90 days after

None

0/90 days

Observed change

Not stated

No whole quarterly period of this series falls inside either window, so no comparison is stated. A longer window may contain one.

Primary source cited: Urban Redevelopment Authority

Why is this linked?

Policy event
MAS introduces Total Debt Servicing Ratio framework for property loans
Announced 28 June 2013, effective 29 June 2013
Category mapping
Series mapped to macroprudential events
No outcome record cites it
Metric
Singapore private residential transactions, all types of sale
Series type: FLOW
Observed series
Observed series, total over whole quarterly periods inside each 90-day window
Before: no whole period. After: no whole period.
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2013_tdsr_jun · metrics 56dfd10a-d6b9-41a7-b183-7d2b09301f89

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