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LIVE · SG INTELLIGENCE
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Singapore·Housing Policy Primary source confirmed

Singapore doubles foreign-buyer ABSD to 60% in third cooling round since 2021

Effective 27 April 2023, the foreigner rate rose from 30% to 60%, with entity rates raised to 65% excluding qualifying developers. First-time citizen and PR buyers were unaffected.

Key numbers
60%Foreigner ABSD rate
6.9 → 1.7%Foreign share, Q1 to Q3
-2.7%CCR prices, Q3 2023
+5.5%OCR prices, Q3 2023
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SOURCE WATCHER
This morning · 07:00 SGT
Sources checked0
New documents0
Worth understanding0
PolicyResidentialLand · GLSCapital markets
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00 · DETECT

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Detection
07:00
MND joint press release detectedNEW
IRAS updated ABSD scheduleNEW
SGX developer announcementTRACKED
47 sources12 documents3 worth understanding
01 · VERIFY

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Claim verification
0 / 21
Foreigner ABSD raised 30% to 60%PRIMARY
Effective 27 April 2023PRIMARY
About 10% of transactions affectedGOVT EST
02 · REMEMBER

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Every event is matched against a curated archive of landmark precedents. Prevo explains why each precedent matters and, just as importantly, where the comparison breaks down.

We've seen this before
2 matches
DEC 2021
ABSD raised to 30% for foreigners
Same instrument, incremental rate. The 2023 doubling was quasi-prohibitive, not calibrated.
STRONG RELEVANCE
JUN 2013
TDSR framework introduced
The contrast case: credit-capacity constraint versus buyer-class tax.
CONTRAST CASE
03 · OUTCOMES

Shows what actually happened afterwards

News platforms stop at publication. Prevo keeps observing at 3, 6 and 12 months, so precedents come with outcomes, not just headlines. Sequence is never presented as causality.

What happened next
Q3 2023 · non-landed
-2.7%
CCR
+2.1%
RCR
+5.5%
OCR
The market did not simply cool. It diverged.
04 · JUDGEMENT

Both sides of the argument. Then you decide.

Every analysis exposes the case for, the case against, its key assumptions and what could make it wrong. The Prevo View is always labelled interpretation, never fact.

Case for

Targeting worked: foreign participation fell by roughly three quarters within two quarters.

Case against

Composition changed, not prices. The aggregate index kept rising regardless.

Prevo view · Interpretation

Buyer-targeted taxes alter buyer composition and demand geography without necessarily lowering aggregate prices.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM · What would change this: sustained aggregate decline from a segment tax alone
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Document
Draft
Adversarial audit
Deterministic checks
Human approval
Published
ADVERSARIAL AUDIT · LIVE FROM THE ARCHIVE
Real corrections, canonical events 1–4
SCOPETDSR covers all property loans by regulated FIs, not residential onlyCORRECTED
DATEJan 2013 to Jun 2013 is 5.5 months, not 7. Computed by code, not assertedCORRECTED
DENOMINATORSales fell 45.5%, but launches fell 56.9%. Numerator never stored aloneFLAGGED
SCOPEThe 5% non-remittable ABSD applies to qualifying developers, not entities generallyCORRECTED
CAUSAL"Dec 2021 failure triggered April 2023" downgraded: policy sequence, not proven causeREFRAMED
NUMBERForeign share stored as 1.7–1.9% range. Sources give estimates; precision is never inventedHELD
DATEThai LTV: Q1 2019 is post-announcement but pre-effective. Both dates storedSTRUCTURED
Every correction above is real, from the audits that built Prevo's first canonical events. The corrections corpus is part of the product.
Two models, opposing jobs. The drafting AI and the auditing AI are different providers with different incentives. Agreement is never treated as truth.
Code checks what models guess. Date arithmetic, rate pairs and window labels are verified deterministically. A model never asserts what a script can compute.
A human signs every event. Nothing publishes on model consensus. Unsupported claims published to date: zero.
The memory

Every event makes Prevo more useful.

0Years of landmark Singapore policy history, 2009 to 2026
0 qtrsLongest tracked price decline, after the 2013 TDSR framework
0/0/0Months at which every major event's outcome is revisited
0Unsupported material claims published. Ever.
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Singapore first · Asia next

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Prevo: Asian Real Estate Intelligence