Linked outcomes

Event

Singapore raises ABSD, tightens housing finance and extends cooling measures to public housing, executive condominiums and industrial property

Announced 11 January 2013 · Effective 12 January 2013 · Macroprudential

Comparison anchored to effective date: 12 January 2013.

Before and after figures are the 365-day windows of the before and after view, not each outcome record's own window. A link here is an association the archive records; it is not a finding that the event produced the outcome.

In brief

5 outcome records are linked to this event: 0 with computable series, 2 citing a series whose aggregation type is unresolved, 1 observed without a series, and 2 unresolved.
Prices continued rising cites URA Private Residential Property Price Index, all residential properties, level (1Q2009 = 100); the aggregation type is unresolved, so Prevo does not compute a before and after comparison.
5 of 5 outcome records name no source, and none has a source document attached.
2 further series are observed around this event through its category mapping, not through an outcome record.

Linked outcomes (5)

Directly referenced: an outcome record on this event. Listed computable first, then not computable, then observed in words, then unresolved; not ranked.

Outcome record 1

Prices continued rising

Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved. (DQ-OUT-002)

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Source-stated figure · Observed · origin: Source fact
Outcome window: Q1 2013 · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Spans the event. Window "Q1 2013" read as 1 January 2013 to 31 March 2013, against the effective date 12 January 2013. No dated window is stored; the dates are read from the label.

HDB Resale Price Index

INDEX · Computable

365 days before

146.7

Q2 2012, Q3 2012, Q4 2012 · 275/365 days

365 days after

145.8

Q2 2013, Q3 2013, Q4 2013 · 275/365 days

Observed change

-0.9

-0.6%

Qualified: whole periods cover 275/365 days before and 275/365 days after. Days outside a whole period are not counted and are not treated as zero.

URA Private Residential Property Price Index, all residential properties, level (1Q2009 = 100)

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

Primary source cited for HDB Resale Price Index: Housing & Development BoardPrimary source cited for URA Private Residential Property Price Index, all residential properties, level (1Q2009 = 100): Urban Redevelopment AuthorityEvidence incomplete

Gap: Evidence record exists, but no source is named on it.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD, tightens housing finance and extends cooling measures to public housing, executive condominiums and industrial property
Announced 11 January 2013, effective 12 January 2013
Outcome record
Outcome record 1: Prices continued rising
Calendar window "Q1 2013", anchored to the effective date
Metric
HDB Resale Price Index
Series type: INDEX
Observed series
Observed series, value in the latest whole quarterly period inside each 365-day window
Before: Q2 2012, Q3 2012, Q4 2012. After: Q2 2013, Q3 2013, Q4 2013.
Source
Housing & Development Board
Primary source
Metric
URA Private Residential Property Price Index, all residential properties, level (1Q2009 = 100)
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

As recorded on the outcome

The URA private residential Property Price Index increased approximately 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2013, from 151.5 to 152.4 on a 1Q2009 = 100 base. The HDB Resale Price Index rose from approximately 146.7 in Q4 2012 to 148.6 in Q1 2013. Monthly developer sales data show the transaction response in sharper relief. Developers sold 2,028 units in January 2013, a record monthly low of 712 units in February, the immediate response to the package, and a record monthly high of 2,793 units in March, exceeding the previous record of 2,772 set in July 2009. Total Q1 2013 new sales of approximately 5,412 units were about 24% higher than Q4 2012.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2013_cooling_jan · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000901 · metrics bd89e9e1-83d4-4cb1-a341-40896143b8d8, 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000901

Outcome record 2

Prices peaked after, not at, the package

Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved. (DQ-OUT-002)

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Source-stated figure · Observed · origin: Source fact
Outcome window: Q2 2013 to Q4 2013 · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Begins on or after the event. Window "Q2 2013 to Q4 2013" read as 1 April 2013 to 31 December 2013, against the effective date 12 January 2013. No dated window is stored; the dates are read from the label.

HDB Resale Price Index

INDEX · Computable

365 days before

146.7

Q2 2012, Q3 2012, Q4 2012 · 275/365 days

365 days after

145.8

Q2 2013, Q3 2013, Q4 2013 · 275/365 days

Observed change

-0.9

-0.6%

Qualified: whole periods cover 275/365 days before and 275/365 days after. Days outside a whole period are not counted and are not treated as zero.

URA Private Residential Property Price Index, all residential properties, level (1Q2009 = 100)

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

Gap: Evidence record exists, but no source is named on it.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD, tightens housing finance and extends cooling measures to public housing, executive condominiums and industrial property
Announced 11 January 2013, effective 12 January 2013
Outcome record
Outcome record 2: Prices peaked after, not at, the package
Calendar window "Q2 2013 to Q4 2013", anchored to the effective date
Metric
HDB Resale Price Index
Series type: INDEX
Observed series
Observed series, value in the latest whole quarterly period inside each 365-day window
Before: Q2 2012, Q3 2012, Q4 2012. After: Q2 2013, Q3 2013, Q4 2013.
Source
Housing & Development Board
Primary source
Metric
URA Private Residential Property Price Index, all residential properties, level (1Q2009 = 100)
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

As recorded on the outcome

The URA PPI recorded approximately +1.0% in Q2 2013, +0.4% in Q3 and -0.9% in Q4. Private prices therefore rose for three quarters after the announcement before declining. The HDB Resale Price Index reached 149.4 in Q2 2013 and fell approximately 0.9% to 148.1 in Q3.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2013_cooling_jan · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000902 · metrics bd89e9e1-83d4-4cb1-a341-40896143b8d8, 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000901

Outcome record 3

Private developer sales declined

Observed

Observed and recorded in words, without a structured series.

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Source-stated figure · Observed · origin: Source fact
Outcome window: calendar 2013 · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Spans the event. Window "calendar 2013" read as 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2013, against the effective date 12 January 2013. No dated window is stored; the dates are read from the label.

Source document not attachedEvidence incomplete

Gap: Evidence record exists, but no source is named on it.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD, tightens housing finance and extends cooling measures to public housing, executive condominiums and industrial property
Announced 11 January 2013, effective 12 January 2013
Outcome record
Outcome record 3: Private developer sales declined
Calendar window "calendar 2013", anchored to the effective date
Source
No source named

As recorded on the outcome

Private developers sold approximately 22,197 private residential units in 2012 and 14,948 in 2013, a decline of approximately 32.7%.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2013_cooling_jan · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000903

Outcome record 4

Buyer composition

Unresolved

Registered before it could be observed: no observation is recorded.

Observation state: Registered before it could be observed
Value basis: Not derived: no value recorded yet · Not derived · origin: Unresolved
Outcome window: 2013 onward · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Window recorded as "2013 onward" (calendar), anchored to the effective date 12 January 2013. No dated window is stored and the label gives no dates, so it is not placed.

Source document not attachedEvidence incomplete

Gap: Evidence record exists, but no source is named on it.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD, tightens housing finance and extends cooling measures to public housing, executive condominiums and industrial property
Announced 11 January 2013, effective 12 January 2013
Outcome record
Outcome record 4: Buyer composition
Calendar window "2013 onward", anchored to the effective date
Source
No source named

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2013_cooling_jan · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000904

Outcome record 5

Industrial property

Unresolved

Registered before it could be observed: no observation is recorded.

Observation state: Registered before it could be observed
Value basis: Not derived: no value recorded yet · Not derived · origin: Unresolved
Outcome window: 2013 onward · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Window recorded as "2013 onward" (calendar), anchored to the effective date 12 January 2013. No dated window is stored and the label gives no dates, so it is not placed.

Source document not attachedEvidence incomplete

Gap: Evidence record exists, but no source is named on it.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD, tightens housing finance and extends cooling measures to public housing, executive condominiums and industrial property
Announced 11 January 2013, effective 12 January 2013
Outcome record
Outcome record 5: Industrial property
Calendar window "2013 onward", anchored to the effective date
Source
No source named

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2013_cooling_jan · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000905

Associated indicators (2)

Observed around the selected event: a series mapped to this kind of event, cited by no outcome record.

Private Residential Property Price Index, All Residential

Observed

Observed around the event; no outcome record cites this series.

Temporal relationship: Before: Q2 2012, Q3 2012, Q4 2012, observed before the event. After: Q2 2013, Q3 2013, Q4 2013, beginning on or after the event. A period that spans 12 January 2013 counts on neither side.

Private Residential Property Price Index, All Residential

INDEX · Computable

365 days before

151.5

Q2 2012, Q3 2012, Q4 2012 · 275/365 days

365 days after

153.2

Q2 2013, Q3 2013, Q4 2013 · 275/365 days

Observed change

+1.7

+1.1%

Qualified: whole periods cover 275/365 days before and 275/365 days after. Days outside a whole period are not counted and are not treated as zero.

Primary source cited: Urban Redevelopment Authority

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD, tightens housing finance and extends cooling measures to public housing, executive condominiums and industrial property
Announced 11 January 2013, effective 12 January 2013
Category mapping
Series mapped to macroprudential events
No outcome record cites it
Metric
Private Residential Property Price Index, All Residential
Series type: INDEX
Observed series
Observed series, value in the latest whole quarterly period inside each 365-day window
Before: Q2 2012, Q3 2012, Q4 2012. After: Q2 2013, Q3 2013, Q4 2013.
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2013_cooling_jan · metrics 7cbef7bc-b216-48c3-851c-91b71553b792

Singapore private residential transactions, all types of sale

Observed

Observed around the event; no outcome record cites this series.

Temporal relationship: Before: Q2 2012, Q3 2012, Q4 2012, observed before the event. After: Q2 2013, Q3 2013, Q4 2013, beginning on or after the event. A period that spans 12 January 2013 counts on neither side.

Singapore private residential transactions, all types of sale

FLOW · Computable

365 days before

28,685

Q2 2012, Q3 2012, Q4 2012 · 275/365 days

365 days after

14,908

Q2 2013, Q3 2013, Q4 2013 · 275/365 days

Observed change

-13,777

-48%

Qualified: whole periods cover 275/365 days before and 275/365 days after. Days outside a whole period are not counted and are not treated as zero.

Primary source cited: Urban Redevelopment Authority

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD, tightens housing finance and extends cooling measures to public housing, executive condominiums and industrial property
Announced 11 January 2013, effective 12 January 2013
Category mapping
Series mapped to macroprudential events
No outcome record cites it
Metric
Singapore private residential transactions, all types of sale
Series type: FLOW
Observed series
Observed series, total over whole quarterly periods inside each 365-day window
Before: Q2 2012, Q3 2012, Q4 2012. After: Q2 2013, Q3 2013, Q4 2013.
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2013_cooling_jan · metrics 56dfd10a-d6b9-41a7-b183-7d2b09301f89

Related policy events

Singapore cuts the EC cancellation fee to 5%, adds a resale levy for second-timers and caps MSR at 30% on EC bank loans has as its direct predecessor this event.