Linked outcomes

Event

Singapore raises ABSD by 5 to 10 points and tightens LTV limits

Announced 5 July 2018 · Effective 6 July 2018 · Cooling measure

Comparison anchored to effective date: 6 July 2018.

Before and after figures are the 180-day windows of the before and after view, not each outcome record's own window. A link here is an association the archive records; it is not a finding that the event produced the outcome.

In brief

6 outcome records are linked to this event: 4 with computable series, 0 citing a series whose aggregation type is unresolved, 1 observed without a series, and 1 unresolved.
Private residential price trajectory is linked through its outcome record to Private Residential Property Price Index, All Residential, which reads 149.6 in the latest whole period after the anchor and 149 before.
4 of 6 outcome records name no source, and none has a source document attached.
2 further series are observed around this event through its category mapping, not through an outcome record.

Linked outcomes (6)

Directly referenced: an outcome record on this event. Listed computable first, then not computable, then observed in words, then unresolved; not ranked.

Outcome record 1

Private residential price trajectory

Supported: every cited series is computable

Every series the outcome record cites has a recorded series type, so the before and after view compares it.

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Derived by hand
Outcome window: calendar 2018 and calendar 2019, with quarterly detail Q3 2018 to Q4 2019 · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Window recorded as "calendar 2018 and calendar 2019, with quarterly detail Q3 2018 to Q4 2019" (calendar), anchored to the effective date 6 July 2018. No dated window is stored and the label gives no dates, so it is not placed.

Private Residential Property Price Index, All Residential

INDEX · Computable

180 days before

149

Q2 2018 · 91/180 days

180 days after

149.6

Q4 2018 · 92/180 days

Observed change

+0.6

+0.4%

Qualified: whole periods cover 91/180 days before and 92/180 days after. Days outside a whole period are not counted and are not treated as zero.

Primary source cited for Private Residential Property Price Index, All Residential: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityDerived observationEvidence incomplete

Gap: Evidence record exists, but no source is named on it.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD by 5 to 10 points and tightens LTV limits
Announced 5 July 2018, effective 6 July 2018
Outcome record
Outcome record 1: Private residential price trajectory
Calendar window "calendar 2018 and calendar 2019, with quarterly detail Q3 2018 to Q4 2019", anchored to the effective date
Metric
Private Residential Property Price Index, All Residential
Series type: INDEX
Observed series
Observed series, value in the latest whole quarterly period inside each 180-day window
Before: Q2 2018. After: Q4 2018.
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

As recorded on the outcome

Calendar-year Price Property Index change: 2018 up 7.86%, 2019 up 2.67%. Quarterly quarter-on-quarter, Q3 2018 through Q4 2019: +0.47, -0.07, -0.67, +1.48, +1.33, +0.52. Reconciled against audit figures of +7.9 and +2.7 and +0.5, -0.1, -0.7, +1.5, +1.3, +0.5, all deltas within 0.04.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2018_cooling_jul · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000050001 · metrics 7cbef7bc-b216-48c3-851c-91b71553b792

Outcome record 2

Primary market absorption, like-for-like on uncompleted units

Supported: every cited series is computable

Every series the outcome record cites has a recorded series type, so the before and after view compares it.

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Calculated from published series
Outcome window: Q3 2018 - Q2 2019 against Q3 2017 - Q2 2018 · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Window recorded as "Q3 2018 - Q2 2019 against Q3 2017 - Q2 2018" (calendar), anchored to the effective date 6 July 2018. No dated window is stored and the label gives no dates, so it is not placed.

Uncompleted private residential units launched, all segments

FLOW · Computable

180 days before

2,437

Q2 2018 · 91/180 days

180 days after

1,657

Q4 2018 · 92/180 days

Observed change

-780

-32%

Qualified: whole periods cover 91/180 days before and 92/180 days after. Days outside a whole period are not counted and are not treated as zero. The two totals span different numbers of days.

Uncompleted private residential units sold, all segments

FLOW · Computable

180 days before

2,231

Q2 2018 · 91/180 days

180 days after

1,793

Q4 2018 · 92/180 days

Observed change

-438

-19.6%

Qualified: whole periods cover 91/180 days before and 92/180 days after. Days outside a whole period are not counted and are not treated as zero. The two totals span different numbers of days.

Source named: Computed by Prevo from Urban Redevelopment Authority Uncompleted private residential units sold, all segments, first 4 calendar quarters containing the post-event period, periods Q3 2017 to Q2 2019 Computed by Prevo from Urban Redevelopment Authority Uncompleted private residential units launched, all segments, first 4 calendar quarters containing the post-event period, periods Q3 2017 to Q2 2019Primary source cited for Uncompleted private residential units launched, all segments: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityPrimary source cited for Uncompleted private residential units sold, all segments: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityDerived observationEvidence incomplete

Gap: The source is named in text; no source document is attached to the outcome record.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD by 5 to 10 points and tightens LTV limits
Announced 5 July 2018, effective 6 July 2018
Outcome record
Outcome record 2: Primary market absorption, like-for-like on uncompleted units
Calendar window "Q3 2018 - Q2 2019 against Q3 2017 - Q2 2018", anchored to the effective date
Metric
Uncompleted private residential units launched, all segments
Series type: FLOW
Observed series
Observed series, total over whole quarterly periods inside each 180-day window
Before: Q2 2018. After: Q4 2018.
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source
Metric
Uncompleted private residential units sold, all segments
Series type: FLOW
Observed series
Observed series, total over whole quarterly periods inside each 180-day window
Before: Q2 2018. After: Q4 2018.
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

As recorded on the outcome

Units sold, uncompleted only: 7,349 to 8,801, up 19.8%. Units launched: 5,418 to 10,902, up 101.2%. Absorption ratio 135.6% to 80.7%. Outcome-window quarterly detail for sold uncompleted: Q3 2018 2,910, Q4 2018 1,793, Q1 2019 1,797, Q2 2019 2,301. For launched: Q3 2018 3,754, Q4 2018 1,657, Q1 2019 2,989, Q2 2019 2,502. Developer sales of uncompleted units rose 19.8% in the four calendar quarters containing the post-event period, while units launched rose 101.2%, reducing the absorption ratio from 135.6% to 80.7%. The ratio decline reflects a doubling of released supply rather than a contraction in sales.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2018_cooling_jul · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000050002 · metrics b54971ec-d7fd-42ac-9a27-1fe60f0dd742, 18cc47c2-fe64-4182-b790-d5895e1d5c94

Outcome record 3

Segment divergence, calendar-year (the evidentiary framing)

Supported: every cited series is computable

Every series the outcome record cites has a recorded series type, so the before and after view compares it.

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Derived by hand
Outcome window: calendar 2018, 2019 and 2020, Q4 over Q4 · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Window recorded as "calendar 2018, 2019 and 2020, Q4 over Q4" (calendar), anchored to the effective date 6 July 2018. No dated window is stored and the label gives no dates, so it is not placed.

Private Residential Property Price Index, All Residential

INDEX · Computable

180 days before

149

Q2 2018 · 91/180 days

180 days after

149.6

Q4 2018 · 92/180 days

Observed change

+0.6

+0.4%

Qualified: whole periods cover 91/180 days before and 92/180 days after. Days outside a whole period are not counted and are not treated as zero.

Price index of non-landed private residential properties, Core Central Region

INDEX · Computable

180 days before

136

Q2 2018 · 91/180 days

180 days after

136.4

Q4 2018 · 92/180 days

Observed change

+0.4

+0.3%

Qualified: whole periods cover 91/180 days before and 92/180 days after. Days outside a whole period are not counted and are not treated as zero.

Price index of non-landed private residential properties, Outside Central Region

INDEX · Computable

180 days before

169.7

Q2 2018 · 91/180 days

180 days after

170.7

Q4 2018 · 92/180 days

Observed change

+0.6%

Qualified: whole periods cover 91/180 days before and 92/180 days after. Days outside a whole period are not counted and are not treated as zero.

Price index of non-landed private residential properties, Rest of Central Region

INDEX · Computable

180 days before

148.5

Q2 2018 · 91/180 days

180 days after

149.2

Q4 2018 · 92/180 days

Observed change

+0.7

+0.5%

Qualified: whole periods cover 91/180 days before and 92/180 days after. Days outside a whole period are not counted and are not treated as zero.

Primary source cited for Private Residential Property Price Index, All Residential: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityPrimary source cited for Price index of non-landed private residential properties, Core Central Region: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityPrimary source cited for Price index of non-landed private residential properties, Outside Central Region: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityPrimary source cited for Price index of non-landed private residential properties, Rest of Central Region: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityDerived observationEvidence incomplete

Gap: Evidence record exists, but no source is named on it.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD by 5 to 10 points and tightens LTV limits
Announced 5 July 2018, effective 6 July 2018
Outcome record
Outcome record 3: Segment divergence, calendar-year (the evidentiary framing)
Calendar window "calendar 2018, 2019 and 2020, Q4 over Q4", anchored to the effective date
Metric
Private Residential Property Price Index, All Residential
Series type: INDEX
Observed series
Observed series, value in the latest whole quarterly period inside each 180-day window
Before: Q2 2018. After: Q4 2018.
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source
Metric
Price index of non-landed private residential properties, Core Central Region
Series type: INDEX
Observed series
Observed series, value in the latest whole quarterly period inside each 180-day window
Before: Q2 2018. After: Q4 2018.
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source
Metric
Price index of non-landed private residential properties, Outside Central Region
Series type: INDEX
Observed series
Observed series, value in the latest whole quarterly period inside each 180-day window
Before: Q2 2018. After: Q4 2018.
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source
Metric
Price index of non-landed private residential properties, Rest of Central Region
Series type: INDEX
Observed series
Observed series, value in the latest whole quarterly period inside each 180-day window
Before: Q2 2018. After: Q4 2018.
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

As recorded on the outcome

Calendar-year change, Q4 over Q4. 2018: ccr +6.73%, rcr +7.42%, ocr +9.35%, all residential +7.86%. 2019: ccr -1.69%, rcr +2.82%, ocr +4.22%, all residential +2.67%. 2020: ccr -0.37%, rcr +4.69%, ocr +3.20%, all residential +2.21%. Index levels for CCR: 136.0 at Q2 2018, trough 132.3 at Q1 2019, partial recovery to 134.1 by Q4 2019, still 133.6 at Q4 2020, below its pre-measure level two and a half years later. Over the same span RCR rose 148.5 to 160.6 and OCR 169.7 to 183.6.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2018_cooling_jul · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000050003 · metrics 7cbef7bc-b216-48c3-851c-91b71553b792, 602eacbe-145c-4dbf-b658-5957ce26496f, 97b127fe-01f7-4813-aa36-c1b09cf518d2, 6a3dbae0-b20d-4f58-8822-d7ef9cbd6648

Outcome record 5

Segment divergence, anchor-derived window (RECORDED, NOT EVIDENTIARY)

Supported: every cited series is computable

Every series the outcome record cites has a recorded series type, so the before and after view compares it.

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Calculated from published series
Outcome window: Q3 2018 to Q3 2019, point to point · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Window recorded as "Q3 2018 to Q3 2019, point to point" (calendar), anchored to the effective date 6 July 2018. No dated window is stored and the label gives no dates, so it is not placed.

Price index of non-landed private residential properties, Core Central Region

INDEX · Computable

180 days before

136

Q2 2018 · 91/180 days

180 days after

136.4

Q4 2018 · 92/180 days

Observed change

+0.4

+0.3%

Qualified: whole periods cover 91/180 days before and 92/180 days after. Days outside a whole period are not counted and are not treated as zero.

Price index of non-landed private residential properties, Outside Central Region

INDEX · Computable

180 days before

169.7

Q2 2018 · 91/180 days

180 days after

170.7

Q4 2018 · 92/180 days

Observed change

+0.6%

Qualified: whole periods cover 91/180 days before and 92/180 days after. Days outside a whole period are not counted and are not treated as zero.

Price index of non-landed private residential properties, Rest of Central Region

INDEX · Computable

180 days before

148.5

Q2 2018 · 91/180 days

180 days after

149.2

Q4 2018 · 92/180 days

Observed change

+0.7

+0.5%

Qualified: whole periods cover 91/180 days before and 92/180 days after. Days outside a whole period are not counted and are not treated as zero.

Source named: Computed by Prevo from Urban Redevelopment Authority Price index of non-landed private residential properties, Core Central Region, first 4 calendar quarters containing the post-event period, level at end, periods Q3 2018 to Q3 2019 Computed by Prevo from Urban Redevelopment Authority Price index of non-landed private residential properties, Rest of Central Region, first 4 calendar quarters containing the post-event period, level at end, periods Q3 2018 to Q3 2019 Computed by Prevo from Urban Redevelopment Authority Price index of non-landed private residential properties, Outside Central Region, first 4 calendar quarters containing the post-event period, level at end, periods Q3 2018 to Q3 2019Primary source cited for Price index of non-landed private residential properties, Core Central Region: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityPrimary source cited for Price index of non-landed private residential properties, Outside Central Region: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityPrimary source cited for Price index of non-landed private residential properties, Rest of Central Region: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityDerived observationEvidence incomplete

Gap: The source is named in text; no source document is attached to the outcome record.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD by 5 to 10 points and tightens LTV limits
Announced 5 July 2018, effective 6 July 2018
Outcome record
Outcome record 5: Segment divergence, anchor-derived window (RECORDED, NOT EVIDENTIARY)
Calendar window "Q3 2018 to Q3 2019, point to point", anchored to the effective date
Metric
Price index of non-landed private residential properties, Core Central Region
Series type: INDEX
Observed series
Observed series, value in the latest whole quarterly period inside each 180-day window
Before: Q2 2018. After: Q4 2018.
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source
Metric
Price index of non-landed private residential properties, Outside Central Region
Series type: INDEX
Observed series
Observed series, value in the latest whole quarterly period inside each 180-day window
Before: Q2 2018. After: Q4 2018.
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source
Metric
Price index of non-landed private residential properties, Rest of Central Region
Series type: INDEX
Observed series
Observed series, value in the latest whole quarterly period inside each 180-day window
Before: Q2 2018. After: Q4 2018.
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

As recorded on the outcome

CCR non-landed 137.8 to 138.0, up 0.15%. RCR non-landed 146.6 to 155.4, up 6.00%. OCR non-landed 169.5 to 173.1, up 2.12%.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2018_cooling_jul · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000050005 · metrics 602eacbe-145c-4dbf-b658-5957ce26496f, 97b127fe-01f7-4813-aa36-c1b09cf518d2, 6a3dbae0-b20d-4f58-8822-d7ef9cbd6648

Outcome record 6

Same-evening transaction rush

Observed

Observed and recorded in words, without a structured series.

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Not derived: no value recorded yet · Not derived · origin: Unresolved
Outcome window: +0d, the evening of 5 July 2018 · elapsed · anchored to the announcement date
Temporal relationship: Window recorded as "+0d, the evening of 5 July 2018" (elapsed), anchored to the announcement date 5 July 2018. No dated window is stored and the label gives no dates, so it is not placed.

Source document not attachedEvidence incomplete

Gap: Evidence record exists, but no source is named on it.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD by 5 to 10 points and tightens LTV limits
Announced 5 July 2018, effective 6 July 2018
Outcome record
Outcome record 6: Same-evening transaction rush
Elapsed window "+0d, the evening of 5 July 2018", anchored to the announcement date
Source
No source named

As recorded on the outcome

Approximately 1,000 units were reportedly sold across Park Colonial, Riverfront Residences and Stirling Residences in under five hours on 5 July 2018, before the midnight commencement. Contemporaneous reports give Riverfront Residences more than 500, Stirling Residences about 200 and Park Colonial about 300. The figures were preliminary and based partly on developer, agency and industry-source reports.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2018_cooling_jul · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000050006

Outcome record 4

HDB resale market as a comparison group

Unresolved

Not observable: no observation is recorded.

Observation state: Not observable
Value basis: Not derived: no value recorded yet · Not derived · origin: Unresolved
Outcome window: not applicable: the comparison is invalid rather than unmeasured · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Window recorded as "not applicable: the comparison is invalid rather than unmeasured" (calendar), anchored to the effective date 6 July 2018. No dated window is stored and the label gives no dates, so it is not placed.

Source document not attachedEvidence incomplete

Gap: Evidence record exists, but no source is named on it.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD by 5 to 10 points and tightens LTV limits
Announced 5 July 2018, effective 6 July 2018
Outcome record
Outcome record 4: HDB resale market as a comparison group
Calendar window "not applicable: the comparison is invalid rather than unmeasured", anchored to the effective date
Source
No source named

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2018_cooling_jul · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000050004

Associated indicators (2)

Observed around the selected event: a series mapped to this kind of event, cited by no outcome record.

Singapore private residential transactions, all types of sale

Observed

Observed around the event; no outcome record cites this series.

Temporal relationship: Before: Q2 2018, observed before the event. After: Q4 2018, beginning on or after the event. A period that spans 6 July 2018 counts on neither side.

Singapore private residential transactions, all types of sale

FLOW · Computable

180 days before

7,186

Q2 2018 · 91/180 days

180 days after

3,860

Q4 2018 · 92/180 days

Observed change

-3,326

-46.3%

Qualified: whole periods cover 91/180 days before and 92/180 days after. Days outside a whole period are not counted and are not treated as zero. The two totals span different numbers of days.

Primary source cited: Urban Redevelopment Authority

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD by 5 to 10 points and tightens LTV limits
Announced 5 July 2018, effective 6 July 2018
Category mapping
Series mapped to cooling measure events
No outcome record cites it
Metric
Singapore private residential transactions, all types of sale
Series type: FLOW
Observed series
Observed series, total over whole quarterly periods inside each 180-day window
Before: Q2 2018. After: Q4 2018.
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2018_cooling_jul · metrics 56dfd10a-d6b9-41a7-b183-7d2b09301f89

Private residential units sold, all segments (uncompleted plus completed)

Observed

Observed around the event; no outcome record cites this series.

Temporal relationship: Before: Q2 2018, observed before the event. After: Q4 2018, beginning on or after the event. A period that spans 6 July 2018 counts on neither side.

Private residential units sold, all segments (uncompleted plus completed)

FLOW · Computable

180 days before

2,366

Q2 2018 · 91/180 days

180 days after

1,836

Q4 2018 · 92/180 days

Observed change

-530

-22.4%

Qualified: whole periods cover 91/180 days before and 92/180 days after. Days outside a whole period are not counted and are not treated as zero. The two totals span different numbers of days.

Primary source cited: Urban Redevelopment Authority

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD by 5 to 10 points and tightens LTV limits
Announced 5 July 2018, effective 6 July 2018
Category mapping
Series mapped to cooling measure events
No outcome record cites it
Metric
Private residential units sold, all segments (uncompleted plus completed)
Series type: FLOW
Observed series
Observed series, total over whole quarterly periods inside each 180-day window
Before: Q2 2018. After: Q4 2018.
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2018_cooling_jul · metrics 1aafa238-9f36-4859-81ee-d6aef8e6b1a2

Related policy events