Linked outcomes

Event

Singapore tightens HDB loan rules and introduces a three-year PR wait-out period

Announced 27 August 2013 · Effective 27 August 2013 · Macroprudential

Comparison anchored to effective date: 27 August 2013.

Before and after figures are the 90-day windows of the before and after view, not each outcome record's own window. A link here is an association the archive records; it is not a finding that the event produced the outcome.

In brief

6 outcome records are linked to this event: 0 with computable series, 0 citing a series whose aggregation type is unresolved, 5 observed without a series, and 1 unresolved.
6 of 6 outcome records name no source, and none has a source document attached.
3 further series are observed around this event through its category mapping, not through an outcome record.

Linked outcomes (6)

Directly referenced: an outcome record on this event. Listed computable first, then not computable, then observed in words, then unresolved; not ranked.

Outcome record 1

The official RPI turned down

Observed

Observed and recorded in words, without a structured series.

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Source-stated figure · Observed · origin: Source fact
Outcome window: Q3 2013 · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Spans the event. Window "Q3 2013" read as 1 July 2013 to 30 September 2013, against the effective date 27 August 2013. No dated window is stored; the dates are read from the label.

Source document not attachedEvidence incomplete

Gap: Evidence record exists, but no source is named on it.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore tightens HDB loan rules and introduces a three-year PR wait-out period
Announced 27 August 2013, effective 27 August 2013
Outcome record
Outcome record 1: The official RPI turned down
Calendar window "Q3 2013", anchored to the effective date
Source
No source named

As recorded on the outcome

The HDB Resale Price Index reached 149.4 in Q2 2013, then fell approximately 0.9% to 148.1 in Q3 2013, the beginning of nine consecutive quarterly declines lasting through Q3 2015.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2013_hdb_msr_aug · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000801

Outcome record 2

Median COV reached zero

Observed

Observed and recorded in words, without a structured series.

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Source-stated figure · Observed · origin: Source fact
Outcome window: February 2014 · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Window recorded as "February 2014" (calendar), anchored to the effective date 27 August 2013. No dated window is stored and the label gives no dates, so it is not placed.

Source document not attachedEvidence incomplete

Gap: Evidence record exists, but no source is named on it.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore tightens HDB loan rules and introduces a three-year PR wait-out period
Announced 27 August 2013, effective 27 August 2013
Outcome record
Outcome record 2: Median COV reached zero
Calendar window "February 2014", anchored to the effective date
Source
No source named

As recorded on the outcome

Industry data reported that the median Cash-Over-Valuation for HDB resale flats fell to S$0 in February 2014, down from approximately S$3,000 in January 2014.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2013_hdb_msr_aug · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000802

Outcome record 3

HDB changed the resale valuation process

Observed

Observed and recorded in words, without a structured series.

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Source-stated figure · Observed · origin: Source fact
Outcome window: March 2014 · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Window recorded as "March 2014" (calendar), anchored to the effective date 27 August 2013. No dated window is stored and the label gives no dates, so it is not placed.

Source document not attachedEvidence incomplete

Gap: Evidence record exists, but no source is named on it.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore tightens HDB loan rules and introduces a three-year PR wait-out period
Announced 27 August 2013, effective 27 August 2013
Outcome record
Outcome record 3: HDB changed the resale valuation process
Calendar window "March 2014", anchored to the effective date
Source
No source named

As recorded on the outcome

HDB changed the resale procedure so that buyers and sellers had to agree a price and obtain an Option to Purchase before the buyer could request an HDB valuation. HDB also stopped publishing valuation figures in the previous manner.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2013_hdb_msr_aug · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000803

Outcome record 4

Prices and transactions declined

Observed

Observed and recorded in words, without a structured series.

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Source-stated figure · Observed · origin: Source fact
Outcome window: calendar 2014 · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Begins on or after the event. Window "calendar 2014" read as 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2014, against the effective date 27 August 2013. No dated window is stored; the dates are read from the label.

Source document not attachedEvidence incomplete

Gap: Evidence record exists, but no source is named on it.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore tightens HDB loan rules and introduces a three-year PR wait-out period
Announced 27 August 2013, effective 27 August 2013
Outcome record
Outcome record 4: Prices and transactions declined
Calendar window "calendar 2014", anchored to the effective date
Source
No source named

As recorded on the outcome

HDB resale prices fell approximately 6.0% during 2014. There were 17,318 registered resale transactions in 2014, down approximately 4.3% from 2013, a historically low level at the time.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2013_hdb_msr_aug · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000804

Outcome record 6

The market turned

Observed

Observed and recorded in words, without a structured series.

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Source-stated figure · Observed · origin: Source fact
Outcome window: 2019 to 2020 · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Window recorded as "2019 to 2020" (calendar), anchored to the effective date 27 August 2013. No dated window is stored and the label gives no dates, so it is not placed.

Source document not attachedEvidence incomplete

Gap: Evidence record exists, but no source is named on it.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore tightens HDB loan rules and introduces a three-year PR wait-out period
Announced 27 August 2013, effective 27 August 2013
Outcome record
Outcome record 6: The market turned
Calendar window "2019 to 2020", anchored to the effective date
Source
No source named

As recorded on the outcome

In September 2019 the Government introduced the Enhanced CPF Housing Grant and raised household income ceilings for eligible HDB housing schemes. The RPI reached its trough of 130.8 in Q2 2019 and then began to recover. In Q3 2020 the RPI rose 1.5% quarter-on-quarter to 133.9, with resale volumes at a ten-year high following Singapore's COVID-19 circuit-breaker period.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2013_hdb_msr_aug · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000806

Outcome record 5

Peak-to-trough decline

Unresolved

The outcome is recorded as calculated but cites no metric, so the calculation cannot be traced or re-run (DQ-OUT-003).

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Calculated from published series
Outcome window: Q2 2013 to Q2 2019 · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Spans the event. Window "Q2 2013 to Q2 2019" read as 1 April 2013 to 30 June 2019, against the effective date 27 August 2013. No dated window is stored; the dates are read from the label.

Derived observationEvidence incomplete

Gap: Evidence record exists, but no source is named on it.
Gap: Recorded as calculated, but the calculation cites no series.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore tightens HDB loan rules and introduces a three-year PR wait-out period
Announced 27 August 2013, effective 27 August 2013
Outcome record
Outcome record 5: Peak-to-trough decline
Calendar window "Q2 2013 to Q2 2019", anchored to the effective date
Source
No source named

As recorded on the outcome

The RPI declined from 149.4 in Q2 2013 to 130.8 in Q2 2019, a cumulative decline of approximately 12.4%. Prices declined in each calendar year from 2013 through 2018 measured on year-end index levels. The index rose slightly in the second half of 2019, from a Q4 index of 131.4 in 2018 to 131.5 in 2019, approximately +0.1% annual growth, and accelerated in 2020.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2013_hdb_msr_aug · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000805

Associated indicators (3)

Observed around the selected event: a series mapped to this kind of event, cited by no outcome record.

HDB Resale Price Index

Unresolved

No whole period of this series falls inside the 90-day windows, so nothing is observed at this window length.

Temporal relationship: No whole period of the series falls inside the 90-day windows either side of 27 August 2013.

HDB Resale Price Index

INDEX · Computable

90 days before

None

0/90 days

90 days after

None

0/90 days

Observed change

Not stated

No whole quarterly period of this series falls inside either window, so no comparison is stated. A longer window may contain one.

Primary source cited: Housing & Development Board

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore tightens HDB loan rules and introduces a three-year PR wait-out period
Announced 27 August 2013, effective 27 August 2013
Category mapping
Series mapped to macroprudential events
No outcome record cites it
Metric
HDB Resale Price Index
Series type: INDEX
Observed series
Observed series, value in the latest whole quarterly period inside each 90-day window
Before: no whole period. After: no whole period.
Source
Housing & Development Board
Primary source

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2013_hdb_msr_aug · metrics bd89e9e1-83d4-4cb1-a341-40896143b8d8

Private Residential Property Price Index, All Residential

Unresolved

No whole period of this series falls inside the 90-day windows, so nothing is observed at this window length.

Temporal relationship: No whole period of the series falls inside the 90-day windows either side of 27 August 2013.

Private Residential Property Price Index, All Residential

INDEX · Computable

90 days before

None

0/90 days

90 days after

None

0/90 days

Observed change

Not stated

No whole quarterly period of this series falls inside either window, so no comparison is stated. A longer window may contain one.

Primary source cited: Urban Redevelopment Authority

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore tightens HDB loan rules and introduces a three-year PR wait-out period
Announced 27 August 2013, effective 27 August 2013
Category mapping
Series mapped to macroprudential events
No outcome record cites it
Metric
Private Residential Property Price Index, All Residential
Series type: INDEX
Observed series
Observed series, value in the latest whole quarterly period inside each 90-day window
Before: no whole period. After: no whole period.
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2013_hdb_msr_aug · metrics 7cbef7bc-b216-48c3-851c-91b71553b792

Singapore private residential transactions, all types of sale

Unresolved

No whole period of this series falls inside the 90-day windows, so nothing is observed at this window length.

Temporal relationship: No whole period of the series falls inside the 90-day windows either side of 27 August 2013.

Singapore private residential transactions, all types of sale

FLOW · Computable

90 days before

None

0/90 days

90 days after

None

0/90 days

Observed change

Not stated

No whole quarterly period of this series falls inside either window, so no comparison is stated. A longer window may contain one.

Primary source cited: Urban Redevelopment Authority

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore tightens HDB loan rules and introduces a three-year PR wait-out period
Announced 27 August 2013, effective 27 August 2013
Category mapping
Series mapped to macroprudential events
No outcome record cites it
Metric
Singapore private residential transactions, all types of sale
Series type: FLOW
Observed series
Observed series, total over whole quarterly periods inside each 90-day window
Before: no whole period. After: no whole period.
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2013_hdb_msr_aug · metrics 56dfd10a-d6b9-41a7-b183-7d2b09301f89

Related policy events

Singapore cuts the EC cancellation fee to 5%, adds a resale levy for second-timers and caps MSR at 30% on EC bank loans has as a structural ancestor this event.