Linked outcomes

Event

Singapore raises ABSD, tightens TDSR to 55% and lowers HDB loan LTV to 85%

Announced 15 December 2021 · Effective 16 December 2021 · Cooling measure

Comparison anchored to effective date: 16 December 2021.

Before and after figures are the 30-day windows of the before and after view, not each outcome record's own window. A link here is an association the archive records; it is not a finding that the event produced the outcome.

In brief

5 outcome records are linked to this event: 0 with computable series, 5 citing a series whose aggregation type is unresolved, 0 observed without a series, and 0 unresolved.
Q1 2022 transaction slowdown cites New private residential units sold by developers, excluding ECs (HEADLINE: uncompleted plus completed) and New private residential units launched by developers, excluding ECs (uncompleted units only) and 1 more; the aggregation type is unresolved, so Prevo does not compute a before and after comparison.
Every outcome record names its source in text; none has a source document attached.
4 further series are observed around this event through its category mapping, not through an outcome record.

Linked outcomes (5)

Directly referenced: an outcome record on this event. Listed computable first, then not computable, then observed in words, then unresolved; not ranked.

Outcome record 1

Q1 2022 transaction slowdown

Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved. (DQ-OUT-002)

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Calculated from published series
Outcome window: Q1 2022 · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Begins on or after the event. Window "Q1 2022" read as 1 January 2022 to 31 March 2022, against the effective date 16 December 2021. No dated window is stored; the dates are read from the label.

New private residential units sold by developers, excluding ECs (HEADLINE: uncompleted plus completed)

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

New private residential units launched by developers, excluding ECs (uncompleted units only)

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

Private residential resale transactions

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

Source named: URA quarterly private residential statisticsPrimary source cited for New private residential units sold by developers, excluding ECs (HEADLINE: uncompleted plus completed): Urban Redevelopment AuthorityPrimary source cited for New private residential units launched by developers, excluding ECs (uncompleted units only): Urban Redevelopment AuthorityPrimary source cited for Private residential resale transactions: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityDerived observationEvidence incomplete

Gap: The source is named in text; no source document is attached to the outcome record.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD, tightens TDSR to 55% and lowers HDB loan LTV to 85%
Announced 15 December 2021, effective 16 December 2021
Outcome record
Outcome record 1: Q1 2022 transaction slowdown
Calendar window "Q1 2022", anchored to the effective date
Metric
New private residential units sold by developers, excluding ECs (HEADLINE: uncompleted plus completed)
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source
Metric
New private residential units launched by developers, excluding ECs (uncompleted units only)
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source
Metric
Private residential resale transactions
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

As recorded on the outcome

Developer sales ex EC: Q4 2021 3,018 -> Q1 2022 1,825 (approximately -39.5%). Developer launches ex EC: Q4 2021 2,275 -> Q1 2022 613 (approximately -73.1%). Private resale: Q4 2021 4,748 -> Q1 2022 3,377 (approximately -28.9%). Both primary and resale activity weakened substantially.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2021_cooling_dec · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000020001 · metrics 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000004, 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000005, 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000006

Outcome record 2

Q1 2022 price deceleration

Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved. (DQ-OUT-002)

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Calculated from published series
Outcome window: Q1 2022 · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Begins on or after the event. Window "Q1 2022" read as 1 January 2022 to 31 March 2022, against the effective date 16 December 2021. No dated window is stored; the dates are read from the label.

URA private residential property price index, QoQ change

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

URA PPI, landed, QoQ change

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

URA PPI, non-landed, QoQ change

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

URA PPI, CCR non-landed, QoQ change

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

URA PPI, RCR non-landed, QoQ change

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

URA PPI, OCR non-landed, QoQ change

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

Source named: URA quarterly private residential statisticsPrimary source cited for URA private residential property price index, QoQ change: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityPrimary source cited for URA PPI, landed, QoQ change: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityPrimary source cited for URA PPI, non-landed, QoQ change: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityPrimary source cited for URA PPI, CCR non-landed, QoQ change: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityPrimary source cited for URA PPI, RCR non-landed, QoQ change: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityPrimary source cited for URA PPI, OCR non-landed, QoQ change: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityDerived observationEvidence incomplete

Gap: The source is named in text; no source document is attached to the outcome record.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD, tightens TDSR to 55% and lowers HDB loan LTV to 85%
Announced 15 December 2021, effective 16 December 2021
Outcome record
Outcome record 2: Q1 2022 price deceleration
Calendar window "Q1 2022", anchored to the effective date
Metric
URA private residential property price index, QoQ change
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source
Metric
URA PPI, landed, QoQ change
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source
Metric
URA PPI, non-landed, QoQ change
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source
Metric
URA PPI, CCR non-landed, QoQ change
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source
Metric
URA PPI, RCR non-landed, QoQ change
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source
Metric
URA PPI, OCR non-landed, QoQ change
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

As recorded on the outcome

URA PPI: Q4 2021 +5.0% -> Q1 2022 +0.7% QoQ. Prices did not decline at aggregate level; price growth slowed sharply. Segments: landed +4.2%; non-landed -0.3%; CCR non-landed -0.1%; RCR non-landed -2.7%; OCR non-landed +2.2%. The aggregate stayed positive largely because landed kept rising; within non-landed, CCR and RCR declined while OCR rose.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2021_cooling_dec · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000020002 · metrics 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001, 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000010, 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000011, 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000012, 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000013, 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000014

Outcome record 3

Calendar 2022 developer-activity decline

Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved. (DQ-OUT-002)

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Calculated from published series
Outcome window: calendar 2022 · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Begins on or after the event. Window "calendar 2022" read as 1 January 2022 to 31 December 2022, against the effective date 16 December 2021. No dated window is stored; the dates are read from the label.

New private residential units sold by developers, excluding ECs (HEADLINE: uncompleted plus completed)

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

New private residential units launched by developers, excluding ECs (uncompleted units only)

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

Gap: The source is named in text; no source document is attached to the outcome record.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD, tightens TDSR to 55% and lowers HDB loan LTV to 85%
Announced 15 December 2021, effective 16 December 2021
Outcome record
Outcome record 3: Calendar 2022 developer-activity decline
Calendar window "calendar 2022", anchored to the effective date
Metric
New private residential units sold by developers, excluding ECs (HEADLINE: uncompleted plus completed)
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source
Metric
New private residential units launched by developers, excluding ECs (uncompleted units only)
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

As recorded on the outcome

Developers' sales of uncompleted private residential units excluding ECs fell from 12,855 in 2021 to 6,834 in 2022, while launches of uncompleted units fell from 10,496 to 4,528. Three series, all URA final figures, preserved separately because they answer different questions. Headline developer sales excluding EC, which INCLUDES completed units: 13,027 in 2021 to 7,099 in 2022, approximately -45.5%. Uncompleted-unit sales: 12,855 to 6,834, approximately -46.8%. Uncompleted-unit launches: 10,496 to 4,528, approximately -56.9%. The difference between the headline and uncompleted sales series is completed-unit sales: 172 in 2021 and 265 in 2022.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2021_cooling_dec · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000020003 · metrics 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000004, 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000005

Outcome record 4

Continued 2022 price appreciation

Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved. (DQ-OUT-002)

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Calculated from published series
Outcome window: calendar 2022 · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Begins on or after the event. Window "calendar 2022" read as 1 January 2022 to 31 December 2022, against the effective date 16 December 2021. No dated window is stored; the dates are read from the label.

URA private residential property price index, calendar-year change

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

HDB Resale Price Index, calendar-year change

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

Source named: URA quarterly private residential statistics; HDB Resale Price IndexPrimary source cited for URA private residential property price index, calendar-year change: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityPrimary source cited for HDB Resale Price Index, calendar-year change: Housing & Development BoardDerived observationEvidence incomplete

Gap: The source is named in text; no source document is attached to the outcome record.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD, tightens TDSR to 55% and lowers HDB loan LTV to 85%
Announced 15 December 2021, effective 16 December 2021
Outcome record
Outcome record 4: Continued 2022 price appreciation
Calendar window "calendar 2022", anchored to the effective date
Metric
URA private residential property price index, calendar-year change
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source
Metric
HDB Resale Price Index, calendar-year change
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Housing & Development Board
Primary source

As recorded on the outcome

Private PPI: 2021 +10.6% -> 2022 +8.6%. HDB RPI: 2021 +12.7% -> 2022 +10.4%. Both markets continued rising strongly; annual appreciation moderated.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2021_cooling_dec · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000020004 · metrics 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000002, 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000003

Outcome record 5

Recovery of foreign participation before April 2023

Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved. (DQ-OUT-002)

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Calculated from published series
Outcome window: Q1 2022 - Q1 2023 · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Begins on or after the event. Window "Q1 2022 - Q1 2023" read as 1 January 2022 to 31 March 2023, against the effective date 16 December 2021. No dated window is stored; the dates are read from the label.

Foreigners' share of private residential purchases

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

Source named: URA-derived transaction analysis estimates; retain provenance with the dataset and calculationPrimary source cited for Foreigners' share of private residential purchases: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityDerived observationEvidence incomplete

Gap: The source is named in text; no source document is attached to the outcome record.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD, tightens TDSR to 55% and lowers HDB loan LTV to 85%
Announced 15 December 2021, effective 16 December 2021
Outcome record
Outcome record 5: Recovery of foreign participation before April 2023
Calendar window "Q1 2022 - Q1 2023", anchored to the effective date
Metric
Foreigners' share of private residential purchases
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

As recorded on the outcome

Foreign participation initially weakened following the 20% -> 30% increase, then recovered materially. By Q1 2023, transaction analysis commonly placed foreigners at approximately 6-7% of private residential purchases (frequently cited estimate ~6.9%, versus 3.1% in Q1 2022).

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2021_cooling_dec · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000020005 · metrics 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000007

Associated indicators (4)

Observed around the selected event: a series mapped to this kind of event, cited by no outcome record.

Private Residential Property Price Index, All Residential

Unresolved

No whole period of this series falls inside the 30-day windows, so nothing is observed at this window length.

Temporal relationship: No whole period of the series falls inside the 30-day windows either side of 16 December 2021.

Private Residential Property Price Index, All Residential

INDEX · Computable

30 days before

None

0/30 days

30 days after

None

0/30 days

Observed change

Not stated

No whole quarterly period of this series falls inside either window, so no comparison is stated. A longer window may contain one.

Primary source cited: Urban Redevelopment Authority

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD, tightens TDSR to 55% and lowers HDB loan LTV to 85%
Announced 15 December 2021, effective 16 December 2021
Category mapping
Series mapped to cooling measure events
No outcome record cites it
Metric
Private Residential Property Price Index, All Residential
Series type: INDEX
Observed series
Observed series, value in the latest whole quarterly period inside each 30-day window
Before: no whole period. After: no whole period.
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2021_cooling_dec · metrics 7cbef7bc-b216-48c3-851c-91b71553b792

Singapore private residential transactions, all types of sale

Unresolved

No whole period of this series falls inside the 30-day windows, so nothing is observed at this window length.

Temporal relationship: No whole period of the series falls inside the 30-day windows either side of 16 December 2021.

Singapore private residential transactions, all types of sale

FLOW · Computable

30 days before

None

0/30 days

30 days after

None

0/30 days

Observed change

Not stated

No whole quarterly period of this series falls inside either window, so no comparison is stated. A longer window may contain one.

Primary source cited: Urban Redevelopment Authority

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD, tightens TDSR to 55% and lowers HDB loan LTV to 85%
Announced 15 December 2021, effective 16 December 2021
Category mapping
Series mapped to cooling measure events
No outcome record cites it
Metric
Singapore private residential transactions, all types of sale
Series type: FLOW
Observed series
Observed series, total over whole quarterly periods inside each 30-day window
Before: no whole period. After: no whole period.
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2021_cooling_dec · metrics 56dfd10a-d6b9-41a7-b183-7d2b09301f89

Uncompleted private residential units launched, all segments

Unresolved

No whole period of this series falls inside the 30-day windows, so nothing is observed at this window length.

Temporal relationship: No whole period of the series falls inside the 30-day windows either side of 16 December 2021.

Uncompleted private residential units launched, all segments

FLOW · Computable

30 days before

None

0/30 days

30 days after

None

0/30 days

Observed change

Not stated

No whole quarterly period of this series falls inside either window, so no comparison is stated. A longer window may contain one.

Primary source cited: Urban Redevelopment Authority

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD, tightens TDSR to 55% and lowers HDB loan LTV to 85%
Announced 15 December 2021, effective 16 December 2021
Category mapping
Series mapped to cooling measure events
No outcome record cites it
Metric
Uncompleted private residential units launched, all segments
Series type: FLOW
Observed series
Observed series, total over whole quarterly periods inside each 30-day window
Before: no whole period. After: no whole period.
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2021_cooling_dec · metrics b54971ec-d7fd-42ac-9a27-1fe60f0dd742

Private residential units sold, all segments (uncompleted plus completed)

Unresolved

No whole period of this series falls inside the 30-day windows, so nothing is observed at this window length.

Temporal relationship: No whole period of the series falls inside the 30-day windows either side of 16 December 2021.

Private residential units sold, all segments (uncompleted plus completed)

FLOW · Computable

30 days before

None

0/30 days

30 days after

None

0/30 days

Observed change

Not stated

No whole quarterly period of this series falls inside either window, so no comparison is stated. A longer window may contain one.

Primary source cited: Urban Redevelopment Authority

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD, tightens TDSR to 55% and lowers HDB loan LTV to 85%
Announced 15 December 2021, effective 16 December 2021
Category mapping
Series mapped to cooling measure events
No outcome record cites it
Metric
Private residential units sold, all segments (uncompleted plus completed)
Series type: FLOW
Observed series
Observed series, total over whole quarterly periods inside each 30-day window
Before: no whole period. After: no whole period.
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2021_cooling_dec · metrics 1aafa238-9f36-4859-81ee-d6aef8e6b1a2

Related policy events