Linked outcomes

Event

Singapore raises ABSD, doubling foreign-buyer rate from 30% to 60%

Announced 26 April 2023 · Effective 27 April 2023 · Cooling measure

Comparison anchored to effective date: 27 April 2023.

Before and after figures are the 90-day windows of the before and after view, not each outcome record's own window. A link here is an association the archive records; it is not a finding that the event produced the outcome.

In brief

4 outcome records are linked to this event: 0 with computable series, 3 citing a series whose aggregation type is unresolved, 0 observed without a series, and 1 unresolved.
Foreign-buyer participation collapse cites Foreigners' share of private residential purchases; the aggregation type is unresolved, so Prevo does not compute a before and after comparison.
Every outcome record names its source in text; none has a source document attached.
4 further series are observed around this event through its category mapping, not through an outcome record.

Linked outcomes (4)

Directly referenced: an outcome record on this event. Listed computable first, then not computable, then observed in words, then unresolved; not ranked.

Outcome record 1

Foreign-buyer participation collapse

Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved. (DQ-OUT-002)

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Calculated from published series
Outcome window: Q2-Q3 2023 · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Spans the event. Window "Q2-Q3 2023" read as 1 April 2023 to 30 September 2023, against the effective date 27 April 2023. No dated window is stored; the dates are read from the label.

Foreigners' share of private residential purchases

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

Source named: URA-derived transaction analysis estimates, MEDIUM-HIGH provenance retainedPrimary source cited for Foreigners' share of private residential purchases: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityDerived observationEvidence incomplete

Gap: The source is named in text; no source document is attached to the outcome record.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD, doubling foreign-buyer rate from 30% to 60%
Announced 26 April 2023, effective 27 April 2023
Outcome record
Outcome record 1: Foreign-buyer participation collapse
Calendar window "Q2-Q3 2023", anchored to the effective date
Metric
Foreigners' share of private residential purchases
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

As recorded on the outcome

Foreigners' share of private residential purchases dropped to approximately 4.1-4.2% in Q2 2023 and approximately 1.7% in Q3 2023, down from roughly 6.9% in Q1 before the measure. By Q4 2023 estimates were around 1.5%. Q2 2023 is the transition quarter; Q3 2023 is the first full calendar quarter.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2023_absd_apr · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000030001 · metrics 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000007

Outcome record 2

Q3 2023 submarket divergence

Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved. (DQ-OUT-002)

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Calculated from published series
Outcome window: Q3 2023 · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Begins on or after the event. Window "Q3 2023" read as 1 July 2023 to 30 September 2023, against the effective date 27 April 2023. No dated window is stored; the dates are read from the label.

URA private residential property price index, QoQ change

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

URA PPI, CCR non-landed, QoQ change

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

URA PPI, RCR non-landed, QoQ change

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

URA PPI, OCR non-landed, QoQ change

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

Source named: URA quarterly private residential statisticsPrimary source cited for URA private residential property price index, QoQ change: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityPrimary source cited for URA PPI, CCR non-landed, QoQ change: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityPrimary source cited for URA PPI, RCR non-landed, QoQ change: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityPrimary source cited for URA PPI, OCR non-landed, QoQ change: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityDerived observationEvidence incomplete

Gap: The source is named in text; no source document is attached to the outcome record.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD, doubling foreign-buyer rate from 30% to 60%
Announced 26 April 2023, effective 27 April 2023
Outcome record
Outcome record 2: Q3 2023 submarket divergence
Calendar window "Q3 2023", anchored to the effective date
Metric
URA private residential property price index, QoQ change
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source
Metric
URA PPI, CCR non-landed, QoQ change
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source
Metric
URA PPI, RCR non-landed, QoQ change
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source
Metric
URA PPI, OCR non-landed, QoQ change
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

As recorded on the outcome

Q3 2023 overall private residential prices rose +0.8% QoQ, masking substantial submarket divergence: CCR non-landed -2.7% QoQ; RCR non-landed +2.1%; OCR non-landed +5.5%.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2023_absd_apr · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000030002 · metrics 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001, 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000012, 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000013, 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000014

Outcome record 3

Full-year 2023 aggregate moderation and volume decline

Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved. (DQ-OUT-002)

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Calculated from published series
Outcome window: calendar 2023 · calendar · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Spans the event. Window "calendar 2023" read as 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, against the effective date 27 April 2023. No dated window is stored; the dates are read from the label.

URA private residential property price index, calendar-year change

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

URA PPI, CCR non-landed, calendar-year change

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

URA PPI, RCR non-landed, calendar-year change

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

URA PPI, OCR non-landed, calendar-year change

Series type unresolved · Not computable

Outcome link exists, but this metric cannot yet be safely aggregated because its series type is unresolved.

Source named: URA quarterly private residential statisticsPrimary source cited for URA private residential property price index, calendar-year change: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityPrimary source cited for URA PPI, CCR non-landed, calendar-year change: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityPrimary source cited for URA PPI, RCR non-landed, calendar-year change: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityPrimary source cited for URA PPI, OCR non-landed, calendar-year change: Urban Redevelopment AuthorityDerived observationEvidence incomplete

Gap: The source is named in text; no source document is attached to the outcome record.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD, doubling foreign-buyer rate from 30% to 60%
Announced 26 April 2023, effective 27 April 2023
Outcome record
Outcome record 3: Full-year 2023 aggregate moderation and volume decline
Calendar window "calendar 2023", anchored to the effective date
Metric
URA private residential property price index, calendar-year change
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source
Metric
URA PPI, CCR non-landed, calendar-year change
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source
Metric
URA PPI, RCR non-landed, calendar-year change
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source
Metric
URA PPI, OCR non-landed, calendar-year change
Series type: unresolved
Observed series
Series held, not aggregated: series type unresolved
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

As recorded on the outcome

Private residential prices increased 6.8% in calendar 2023, versus 8.6% in 2022. Annual trajectory: 2021 +10.6%, 2022 +8.6%, 2023 +6.8%, 2024 +3.9%. 2023 submarket divergence (non-landed): ccr +1.9%, rcr +3.1%, ocr +13.7%. Total private residential transaction volume fell 13% from 2022 to its lowest annual level since 2016.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2023_absd_apr · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000030003 · metrics 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000002, 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000017, 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000018, 3e000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000019

Outcome record 4

Six-month characterisation: luxury/CCR thinning

Unresolved

The outcome is recorded as calculated but cites no metric, so the calculation cannot be traced or re-run (DQ-OUT-003).

Observation state: Observed
Value basis: Calculated from published series
Outcome window: 0-6mo · elapsed · anchored to the effective date
Temporal relationship: Begins on or after the event. Window "0-6mo" read as 27 April 2023 to 26 October 2023, against the effective date 27 April 2023. No dated window is stored; the dates are read from the label.

Source named: URA quarterly private residential statistics; transaction analysisDerived observationEvidence incomplete

Gap: The source is named in text; no source document is attached to the outcome record.
Gap: Recorded as calculated, but the calculation cites no series.

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD, doubling foreign-buyer rate from 30% to 60%
Announced 26 April 2023, effective 27 April 2023
Outcome record
Outcome record 4: Six-month characterisation: luxury/CCR thinning
Elapsed window "0-6mo", anchored to the effective date
Source
URA quarterly private residential statistics; transaction analysis
Named in text on the outcome record; no document attached

As recorded on the outcome

Luxury/CCR volumes materially lower; the high-end condo market thinned. OCR pricing remained substantially more resilient. GCBs are excluded from this characterisation: GCB purchasers are subject to citizenship approval restrictions and are a structurally different market.

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2023_absd_apr · outcome 0c000000-0000-4000-8000-000000030004

Associated indicators (4)

Observed around the selected event: a series mapped to this kind of event, cited by no outcome record.

Private Residential Property Price Index, All Residential

Unresolved

No whole period of this series falls inside the 90-day windows, so nothing is observed at this window length.

Temporal relationship: No whole period of the series falls inside the 90-day windows either side of 27 April 2023.

Private Residential Property Price Index, All Residential

INDEX · Computable

90 days before

None

0/90 days

90 days after

None

0/90 days

Observed change

Not stated

No whole quarterly period of this series falls inside either window, so no comparison is stated. A longer window may contain one.

Primary source cited: Urban Redevelopment Authority

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD, doubling foreign-buyer rate from 30% to 60%
Announced 26 April 2023, effective 27 April 2023
Category mapping
Series mapped to cooling measure events
No outcome record cites it
Metric
Private Residential Property Price Index, All Residential
Series type: INDEX
Observed series
Observed series, value in the latest whole quarterly period inside each 90-day window
Before: no whole period. After: no whole period.
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2023_absd_apr · metrics 7cbef7bc-b216-48c3-851c-91b71553b792

Singapore private residential transactions, all types of sale

Unresolved

No whole period of this series falls inside the 90-day windows, so nothing is observed at this window length.

Temporal relationship: No whole period of the series falls inside the 90-day windows either side of 27 April 2023.

Singapore private residential transactions, all types of sale

FLOW · Computable

90 days before

None

0/90 days

90 days after

None

0/90 days

Observed change

Not stated

No whole quarterly period of this series falls inside either window, so no comparison is stated. A longer window may contain one.

Primary source cited: Urban Redevelopment Authority

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD, doubling foreign-buyer rate from 30% to 60%
Announced 26 April 2023, effective 27 April 2023
Category mapping
Series mapped to cooling measure events
No outcome record cites it
Metric
Singapore private residential transactions, all types of sale
Series type: FLOW
Observed series
Observed series, total over whole quarterly periods inside each 90-day window
Before: no whole period. After: no whole period.
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2023_absd_apr · metrics 56dfd10a-d6b9-41a7-b183-7d2b09301f89

Uncompleted private residential units launched, all segments

Unresolved

No whole period of this series falls inside the 90-day windows, so nothing is observed at this window length.

Temporal relationship: No whole period of the series falls inside the 90-day windows either side of 27 April 2023.

Uncompleted private residential units launched, all segments

FLOW · Computable

90 days before

None

0/90 days

90 days after

None

0/90 days

Observed change

Not stated

No whole quarterly period of this series falls inside either window, so no comparison is stated. A longer window may contain one.

Primary source cited: Urban Redevelopment Authority

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD, doubling foreign-buyer rate from 30% to 60%
Announced 26 April 2023, effective 27 April 2023
Category mapping
Series mapped to cooling measure events
No outcome record cites it
Metric
Uncompleted private residential units launched, all segments
Series type: FLOW
Observed series
Observed series, total over whole quarterly periods inside each 90-day window
Before: no whole period. After: no whole period.
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2023_absd_apr · metrics b54971ec-d7fd-42ac-9a27-1fe60f0dd742

Private residential units sold, all segments (uncompleted plus completed)

Unresolved

No whole period of this series falls inside the 90-day windows, so nothing is observed at this window length.

Temporal relationship: No whole period of the series falls inside the 90-day windows either side of 27 April 2023.

Private residential units sold, all segments (uncompleted plus completed)

FLOW · Computable

90 days before

None

0/90 days

90 days after

None

0/90 days

Observed change

Not stated

No whole quarterly period of this series falls inside either window, so no comparison is stated. A longer window may contain one.

Primary source cited: Urban Redevelopment Authority

Why is this linked?

Policy event
Singapore raises ABSD, doubling foreign-buyer rate from 30% to 60%
Announced 26 April 2023, effective 27 April 2023
Category mapping
Series mapped to cooling measure events
No outcome record cites it
Metric
Private residential units sold, all segments (uncompleted plus completed)
Series type: FLOW
Observed series
Observed series, total over whole quarterly periods inside each 90-day window
Before: no whole period. After: no whole period.
Source
Urban Redevelopment Authority
Primary source

Record identifiers

event evt_sg_2023_absd_apr · metrics 1aafa238-9f36-4859-81ee-d6aef8e6b1a2

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